In 2003, just 21,000 saiga remained in Kazakhstan, a collapse of more than 95% in ten years. Then governments actually followed through. The IUCN has since moved it from Critically Endangered to Near Threatened. Kazakhstan now counts close to four million.
A 95% Collapse, In a Decade
The saiga antelope once roamed the Eurasian steppe in vast herds, millions of animals crossing the same grasslands as mammoths. By 2003, commercial poaching for their medicinal horn had cut the Kazakh population by more than 95% in ten years, to about 21,000.
Then, in 2015, a bacterial outbreak swept through the remaining herds. In about a month, over 200,000 saiga died, some 60% of the global population at the time, and wildlife biologists thought they might be witnessing the end.
What Turned It Around
Governments actually followed through. Kazakhstan imposed a complete hunting ban on saiga. Every country the saiga migrates through, Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, signed a memorandum of understanding under the UN Convention on Migratory Species, in force since 2006, to protect the species across its range.
None of these things were new ideas. What was new was sustained enforcement over two decades.
The Numbers
- 95%+, fall in Kazakhstan in the ten years to 2003
- 21,000, Kazakhstan's population in 2003, the lowest point
- 200,000+, killed in a single 2015 bacterial outbreak
- Near Threatened, IUCN status after reassessment, down from Critically Endangered
- ~4 million, Kazakhstan's count in spring 2025
Still Fragile
The saiga is not safe. Mass die-offs from disease can still happen, the same bacterial conditions that caused the 2015 catastrophe could recur as climate shifts alter steppe weather patterns. The species' biology also makes it vulnerable: herds calve in tight synchrony over just a few weeks, and a single bad season can wipe out an entire year-class.
But the population is real and large. In 2025 Kazakhstan judged it big enough to allow regulated hunting again, to limit damage to crops. Five governments agreed, on paper, to protect an animal that crosses their borders.
The saiga is proof that even a 95% collapse does not always have to be the final word.
_Sources: Frankfurt Zoological Society, "Supporting saiga antelope recovery", Altyn Dala programme. Altyn Dala civil society partners, "Position statement: sustainable use of saiga antelope", 26 September 2025. AFP via France 24, "Kazakhstan to allow hunting of once-endangered antelopes", 28 May 2025. Convention on Migratory Species, Saiga Antelope Memorandum of Understanding._